Are Outcomes to National Security Predictable?

Getting set to listen to “It’s Your World” on kqed.com (NPR station in San Francisco, CA).  Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a political scientist famous for his use of game theory, will be the guest.  Starts right about…now.  Tune in yourself here: http://www.kqed.org/radio/listen/.  Should be interesting.  More about it here:

Are Outcomes to National Security Predictable?
The program’s guest is Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Julius Silver professor of politics at NYU. He’s an expert on game theory — the idea that people compete and that they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict events, and his forecasts have a 90 percent accuracy rate. He boldly predicts that President Obama is unlikely to quash the terrorist influence in Pakistan, that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons and that global warming will prove immune to government prescriptions. In his new book “The Predictioneer’s Game,” Bueno de Mesquita uses his mathematical model to predict outcomes in business, national security and day-to-day life based on the self-interest of decision makers. He joins the show to detail his system of calculation. Since the early 1980s, CIA officials have hired Bueno de Mesquita to perform more than 1,000 predictions. A study by the CIA, now declassified, even found that his predictions “hit the bull’s-eye” twice as often as its own analysts did. (from http://www.kqed.org/radio/programs/index.jsp?pgmid=RD58)

The World Affairs Council of Northern California sponsors this program.

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